Delphi-Based Planning Approach in the Maritime Transport Chain

作     者：Raft Elbert Fabian Walter Roman Grig 

作者机构：Department of Management and Logistics Technical University Darmstadt Darmstadt 64289 Germany . Department of Business Development IQ Martrade Holding Berlin 10719 Germany 

出 版 物：《Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering》 (船舶与海洋工程（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第2卷第3期

页      面：175-181页

学科分类：12[管理学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 07[理学] 08[工学] 082303[工学-交通运输规划与管理] 070105[理学-运筹学与控制论] 0701[理学-数学] 0823[工学-交通运输工程] 

主　　题：Collaborative Delphi-based planning maritime transport chain container transhipment. 

摘      要：The objective of this paper is to illustrate behavioural aspects and a collaborative Delphi-based planning approach in the maritime transport chain. Therefore, this paper analyses changes in behavioural routines and governance structures in the maritime transport chain using a case study that depicts mutual projections of expected container transhipment moderated by a neutral third for reducing the uncertainty in planning within the whole maritime transport chain. The actors＇ different views on container transport are collected and directly confronted to an expert panel showing bounded rationality and thus asymmetric information can be circumvented The planning approach shows how actors＇ different internal planning can be improved and evident to the market. The whole maritime transport chain expects the future development in container transport which can be given by using collaborative Delphi-based planning. As a result, an overall picture for planning issues can be constituted, improving both individual planning of the actors and expected market growth.