Impact of renewable power market penetration on coal power generation capacity growth
Impact of renewable power market penetration on coal power generation capacity growth作者机构：The Pennsylvania State University（University Park） 16802 USA West Virginia University Morgantown WV26506-6070 USA
出 版 物：《Journal of Coal Science & Engineering(China)》 (煤炭学报（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2011年第17卷第2期
页 面：217-224页
学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 080702[工学-热能工程] 0808[工学-电气工程] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 08[工学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0814[工学-土木工程]
基 金：U.S. Department of the Treasury USDT
主 题：可再生能源 发电能力 煤炭行业 能源市场 渗透 温室气体排放 燃煤电厂 资本成本
摘 要：Since renewable energy sources are growing in importance, how well they can penetrate the energy market for power generation will be a very important factor in the role the coal industry will play in the future. This paper examined the displacement of coal power plant capacity from 2010 to 2050 by renewables with respect to three drivers assumed under various conditions: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), Greenhouse Gas (GHG) policy, and varying plant capital cost cases. The results by 2050 illustrate that renewable market penetration captures anywhere from 1.9% to 6.4% of potential coal power generation capacity additions. Renewable power generation capacity additions is expected to outpace coal power plant additions by 89% with respect to ARRA in 2050, however with no GHG policy coal power generation capacity build-outs will outpace renewables by as high as 809%. Finally, coal power generation is still projected to be the largest single energy source contributor to the electricity market making up 28.0% of total available capacity, while renewables are expected to only make up 16.3% of total available capacity.
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