Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change

作     者：Jiquan ZHOU Yi LIU Jining CHEN Fanxian YU 

作者机构：Department of Environmental Science and EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China 

出 版 物：《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》 (环境科学与工程前沿（英文）)

年 卷 期：2008年第2卷第4期

页      面：494-504页

核心收录：

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.4070157) the National Key Technologies Research and Development Program(Grant No.2006BAJ02A01-02) 

主　　题：strategic environmental assessment(SEA) uncertainty analysis urban plan land use 

摘      要：Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment(SEA).In order to quantitatively characterize the uncertainties of environmental impacts,this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on land use change,which combines the scenario analysis approach,stochastic simulation technique,and *** city in China was taken as a case study in the present *** results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in ***,the Biliu River,Fuzhou River,Zhuang River,and Dasha River have 100% probabilities for ***3-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all *** COD,industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers except the Zhuang *** NH3-N,agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River,Yingna River,and Dasha River,sewage for the Fuzhou River and Zhuang River,and industry for the Dengsha *** methodology can provide useful information,such as environmental risk,environmental pressure,and extremely environmental impact,especially under considerations of *** can also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning.