Noninvasive methods for prediction of esophageal varices in pediatric patients with portal hypertension

作     者：Marina Rossato Adami Cristina Targa Ferreira Carlos Oscar Kieling Vania Hirakata Sandra Maria Gonalves Vieira 

作者机构：Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulPost-Graduation in Gastroenterology and HepatologyHospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 (世界胃肠病学杂志（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2013年第19卷第13期

页      面：2053-2059页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100202[医学-儿科学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：Supported by FIPE-HCPA (Research and Events Support Fund at Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre) 

主　　题：Portal hypertension Clinical predictors Pediatric patients Esophageal varices 

摘      要：AIM: To evaluate clinical and laboratory parameters for prediction of bleeding from esophageal varices (EV) in children with portal hypertension. METHODS: Retrospective study of 103 children (mean age: 10.1 ± 7.7 years), 95.1% with intrahepatic portal hypertension. All patients had no history of bleeding and underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy for EV screening. We recorded variceal size (F1, F2 and F3), red-color signs and portal gastropathy, according to the Japanese Research Society for Portal Hypertension classification. Patients were classified into two groups: with and without EV. Seven noninvasive markers were evaluated as potential predictors of EV: (1) platelet count; (2) spleen size z score, expressed as a standard deviation score relative to normal values for age; (3)platelet count to spleen size z score ratio; (4) platelets count to spleen size (cm) ratio; (5) the clinical prediction rule (CPR); (6) the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI); and (7) the risk score. RESULTS: Seventy-one children had EV on first endoscopy. On univariate analysis, spleen size, platelets, CPR, risk score, APRI, and platelet count to spleen size z score ratio showed significant associations. The best noninvasive predictors of EV were platelet count [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.82; 95%CI: 0.73-0.91], platelet: spleen size z score (AUROC 0.78; 95%CI: 0.67-0.88), CPR (AUROC 0.77; 95%CI: 0.64-0.89), and risk score (AUROC 0.77; 95%CI: 0.66-0.88). A logistic regression model was applied with EV as the dependent variable and corrected by albumin, bilirubin and spleen size z score. Children with a CPR 114. A risk score -1.2 increased the likelihood of EV (odds ratio 7.47; 95%CI: 2.06-26.99). CONCLUSION: Children with portal hypertension with a CPR below 114 and a risk score greater than -1.2 are more likely to have present EV. Therefore, these two tes