Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

作     者：ZENGWei-hua CHENGSheng-tong 

作者机构：SchoolofEnvironmentStateKeyLaboratoryofEnvironmentalSimulationandPollutionControlBeijingNormalUniversityBeijing100875China DepartmentofEnvironmentalScienceandEngineeringTsinghuaUniversityBeijing100084China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 (环境科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2005年第17卷第2期

页      面：263-267页

核心收录：

学科分类：083002[工学-环境工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 07[理学] 08[工学] 09[农学] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：TheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(No. 70 2 730 0 5)andtheHi TechResearchandDevelopmentProgram (863)ofChina(No .2 0 0 3AA60 1 0 1 0 ) 

主　　题：environmental risk(ER) environmental pollution accident(EPA) ER evaluation ER field EPA damage field 

摘      要：Environmental risk(ER) factors come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism(PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factors will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptors are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously, the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise s safety management and emergency response of the accident.