Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956–2010

作     者：夏军 杜鸿 曾思栋 佘敦先 张永勇 严子奇 叶琰 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface ProcessesInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCAS State key laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering ScienceWuhan University Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research College of Natural Resources and EnvironmentSouthwest University College of Water Resources and Hydropower Sichuan University 

出 版 物：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 (地理学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第22卷第6期

页      面：1045-1060页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 

基　　金：National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406 The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.20102060201000066 

主　　题：Huaihe River extreme runoff extreme distribution threshold selection 

摘      要：Based on the daily runoff data from 20 hydrological stations above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010, run test, trend test and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the variation trend of annual maximum runoff series. The annual maximum series （AM） and peaks over threshold series （POT） are selected to describe the extreme distributions of generalized extreme value distribution （GEV） and generalized Pareto distri- bution （GPD）. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that during the period 1956-2010 in the Huaihe River Basin, annual maximum runoff at 10 stations have a decreasing trend, while the other 10 stations have an unobvious increasing trend. The maximum runoff events almost occurred in the flood period during the 1960s and 1970s. The extreme runoff events in the Huaihe River Basin mainly occurred in the mainstream of the Huaihe River, Huainan mountainous areas, and Funiu mountainous areas. Through Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, GEV and GPD distributions can be well fitted with AM and POT series respectively. Percentile value method, mean ex- cess plot method and certain numbers of peaks over threshold method are used to select threshold, and it is found that percentile value method is the best of all for extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin.