Forecasting the Convergence State of per Capital Income in Vietnam

作     者：Nguyen Khac Minh Pham Van Khanh 

作者机构：Military Technical Academy Hanoi Vietnam National Economics University Hanoi Vietnam 

出 版 物：《American Journal of Operations Research》 (美国运筹学期刊（英文）)

年 卷 期：2013年第3卷第6期

页      面：487-496页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Convergence Regression Method Markov Proces 

摘      要：Convergence problem of an economic variable represents an underlying forecast of neoclassical economic growth model. This paper aims to analyze the convergence of provincial per capita GDP stability in Vietnam over the period of 1991-2007. This can be done by two approaches including bias data-based regression method for testing convergence and Markov chain model for describing features of long-term tendency of per capita income in Vietnam growth in provinces. The regression method results in the signs of convergence. To apply Markov process, we divide total pattern into 5 per capita income classes. Result estimated from the Markov chain model shows the poor convergence.