A Model for the Risk of Microcephaly Induced by the Zika Virus (ZIKV)

作     者：Dalia M. Muñoz Pizza Anibal Muñoz Loaiza John F. Arredondo Montoya Oscar A. Manrique Vanessa Abello Sossa Carlos A. Abello Muñoz Steven Raigosa Hans Meyer Contreras Irma Pérez Contreras Maria E. Cardenas Perea Miguel A. Enríquez Dalia M. Muñoz Pizza;Anibal Muñoz Loaiza;John F. Arredondo Montoya;Oscar A. Manrique;Vanessa Abello Sossa;Carlos A. Abello Muñoz;Steven Raigosa;Hans Meyer Contreras;Irma Pérez Contreras;Maria E. Cardenas Perea;Miguel A. Enríquez

作者机构：Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME) Facultad de Educación Universidad del Quindío Quindío Colombia Facultad de Medicina Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla Puebla México 

出 版 物：《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》 (建模与仿真（英文）)

年 卷 期：2016年第4卷第3期

页      面：109-117页

学科分类：07[理学] 0701[理学-数学] 070101[理学-基础数学] 

主　　题：Model Microcephaly Zika Virus Basic Reproduction Number Sensitivity Analysis 

摘      要：It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus. A specific pregnant women susceptible group has been accounted for. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) has been obtained by implementing the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis with respect to each parameter has been applied to that threshold. Finally, the incidence to the exposure is obtained by performing several system simulations.