Application of the Concept of Terminal Value in the Analysis of Projects Based on Renewable Energy
作者机构：Instituto Federal de Educacao Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS) Campus Viamao Brazil Instituto de Pesquisas Hidraulicas (IPH) Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) Porto Alegre Brazil
出 版 物：《Journal of Power and Energy Engineering》 (电力能源（英文）)
年 卷 期：2018年第6卷第6期
页 面：16-37页
学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学]
基 金：This work was developed as a part of research activities on renewable energy developed at the Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas,Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul The authors acknowledge the support received by the institution The second author acknowledges the financial support received from CNPq(proc.n.309021/2014-6)for his research work
主 题：Feasibility Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Method Terminal Value Renewable Energy
摘 要：Projects for energy supply based on the exploitation of renewable energy have a very predictable cash flow. The initial costs are usually high, with the acquisition of technologically evolving equipment. However, maintenance costs are relatively low and easily predictable. Likewise, operating costs are often very low as there is no need to buy inputs. Power storage devices are often short-lived and contribute to a relative cost increase. At the same time, these projects are often not approved because they are directly compared to projects based on non-renewable resources, with cash flows that may not be so easily predictable and with much lower start-up costs. Fossil fuels have hardly predictable costs, established by non-technical criteria and related to geopolitical issues. In addition, their operating costs are usually very high, precisely because of the need to purchase fossil fuels. This paper proposes the calculation of terminal value in cash flows of power generation projects and its application for feasibility analysis of projects based on renewable resources. The proposed method suggests the calculation of terminal value as the moving average calculated for five-year intervals with constant growth rate of 5%. This method also encourages the inclusion in the cash flow of annual values that add up to the end of the analysis period the sufficient value to renew the system components at the end of the usual analysis period of 20 - 25 years. The application of the proposed method to a diesel wind system simulated with the well-known Homer software indicates the modification of the results of the Homer with the preference for systems with greater wind penetration instead of the systems with greater consumption of fossil fuels.
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