ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF CHAOTIC SYSTEMS WITH RESPECT TO MAXIMALLY EFFECTIVE COMPUTATION TIME

作     者：高新全 封国林 董文杰 丑纪范 

作者机构：Department of Meteorological Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Mathematics and Physics College Yangzhou University Yangzhou 225009 China 

出 版 物：《Acta Mechanica Sinica》 (力学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2003年第19卷第2期

页      面：134-139页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 080103[工学-流体力学] 08[工学] 080104[工学-工程力学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0801[工学-力学（可授工学、理学学位）] 

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 国家发展基础科学项目 中国科学院资助项目 

主　　题：climate prediction chaotic systems numerical calculation maximally effective computation time retrospective scheme 

摘      要：The round-off error introduces uncertainty in the numerical solution. A computational uncertainty principle is explained and validated by using chaotic systems, such as the climatic model,the Rossler and super chaos system. Maximally effective computation time (MECT) and optimal stepsize (OS) are discussed and obtained via an optimal searching method. Under OS in solving nonlinear ordinary differential equations, the self-memorization equations of chaotic systems are set up, thus a new approach to numerical weather forecast is described.