Research on Hybrid Model of Garlic Short-term Price Forecasting based on Big Data

作     者：Baojia Wang Pingzeng Liu Zhang Chao Wang Junmei Weijie Chen Ning Cao Gregory MPO’Hare Fujiang Wen 

作者机构：College of information science and engineeringShandong Agricultural UniversityTai’an271000China College of Information EngineeringQingdao Binhai UniversityQingdao266555China School of Computer ScienceUniversity College Dublin(UCD)BelfieldDublin 4Ireland 

出 版 物：《Computers, Materials & Continua》 (计算机、材料和连续体（英文）)

年 卷 期：2018年第57卷第11期

页      面：283-296页

核心收录：

学科分类：0831[工学-生物医学工程（可授工学、理学、医学学位）] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 0808[工学-电气工程] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 0809[工学-电子科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 0805[工学-材料科学与工程（可授工学、理学学位）] 0701[理学-数学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 0801[工学-力学（可授工学、理学学位）] 

基　　金：Shandong independent innovation and achievements transformation project, (2014ZZCX07106) Independent Sector 

主　　题：Price forecast machine learning hybrid model garlic 

摘      要：Garlic prices fluctuate dramatically in recent years and it is very difficult to predict garlic *** autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is currently the most important method for predicting garlic ***,the ARIMA model can only predict the linear part of the garlic prices,and cannot predict its nonlinear ***,it is urgent to adopt a method to analyze the nonlinear characteristics of garlic *** comparing the advantages and disadvantages of several major prediction models which used to forecast nonlinear time series,using support vector machine(SVM)model to predict the nonlinear part of garlic prices and establish ARIMA-SVM hybrid forecast model to predict garlic *** monthly average price data of garlic in 2010-2017 was used to test the effect of ARIMA model,SVM model and ARIMA-SVM *** experimental results show that:(1)Garlic price is affected by many factors but the most is the supply and demand relationship;(2)The SVM model has a good effect in dealing with the nonlinear relationship of garlic prices;(3)The ARIMA-SVM hybrid model is better than the single ARIMA model and SVM model on the accuracy of garlic price prediction,it can be used as an effective method to predict the short-term price of garlic.