Predictive power of statistical significance
Predictive power of statistical significance作者机构：Department of Family Medicine University of Washington Department of Medical Education and Clinical Sciences Elson S. Floyd College of Medicine Washington State University
出 版 物：《World Journal of Methodology》 (世界方法学杂志)
年 卷 期：2017年第7卷第4期
页 面：112-116页
学科分类：07[理学] 0701[理学-数学] 070101[理学-基础数学]
主 题：Statistical significance Positive predictive value Biostatistics Clinical signifcance Powe
摘 要：A statistically significant research finding should not be defined as a P-value of 0.05 or less, because this definition does not take into account study power. Statistical significance was originally defined by Fisher RA as a P-value of 0.05 or less. According to Fisher, any finding that is likely to occur by random variation no more than 1 in 20 times is considered significant. Neyman J and Pearson ES subsequently argued that Fisher s definition was incomplete. They proposed that statistical significance could only be determined by analyzing the chance of incorrectly considering a study finding was significant(a Type Ⅰ?error) or incorrectly considering a study finding was insignificant(a Type Ⅱ error). Their definition of statistical significance is also incomplete because the error rates are considered separately, not together. A better definition of statistical significance is the positive predictive value of a P-value, which is equal to the power divided by the sum of power and the P-value. This definition is more complete and relevant than Fisher s or Neyman-Peason s definitions, because it takes into account both concepts of statistical significance. Using this definition, a statistically significant finding requires a P-value of 0.05 or less when the power is at least 95%, and a P-value of 0.032 or less when the power is 60%. To achieve statistical significance, P-values must be adjusted downward as the study power decreases.
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