Assessment of Flood Catastrophe Risk for Grain Production at the Provincial Scale in China Based on the BMM Method

作     者：XU Lei ZHANG Qiao ZHOU Ai-lian HUO Ran 

作者机构：Agricultural Information InstituteChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service TechnologyMinistry of Agriculture 

出 版 物：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 (农业科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2013年第12卷第12期

页      面：2310-2320页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 07[理学] 0710[理学-生物学] 0832[工学-食品科学与工程（可授工学、农学学位）] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 0905[农学-畜牧学] 0906[农学-兽医学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0901[农学-作物学] 0703[理学-化学] 0902[农学-园艺学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41201551) the Key Technology R&D Program of China(2012BAH20B04-2) 

主　　题：flood catastrophe risk assessment block maxima model（BMM） provincial scale China 

摘      要：Flood catastrophe risk assessment is imperative for the steady development of agriculture under the context of global climate change,and meanwhile,it is an urgent scientific issue need to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline.This paper developed the methodology of flood catastrophe risk assessment,which can be shown as the standard process of crop loss calculation,Monte Carlo simulation,the generalized extreme value distribution（GEV） fitting,and risk evaluation.Data on crop loss were collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters,hectares affected by natural disasters,and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard equation.Monte Carlo simulation based on appropriate distribution was used to expand sample size to overcome the insufficiency of crop loss data.Block maxima model（BMM） approach based on the extreme value theory was for modeling the generalized extreme value distribution（GEV） of flood catastrophe loss,and then flood catastrophe risk at the provincial scale in China was calculated.The Type III Extreme distribution（Weibull） has a weighted advantage of modeling flood catastrophe risk for grain production.The impact of flood catastrophe to grain production in China was significantly serious,and high or very high risk of flood catastrophe mainly concentrates on the central and eastern regions of China.Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century flood disaster,for majority of the major-producing provinces,the probability of 10% reduction of grain output is more than 90%.Especially,the probabilities of more than 15% decline in grain production reach up to 99.99,99.86,99.69,and 91.60% respectively in Anhui,Jilin,Liaoning,and Heilongjiang.Flood catastrophe assessment can provide multifaceted information about flood catastrophe risk that can help to guide management of flood catastrophe.