Does a low solar cycle minimum hint at a weak upcoming cycle?

作     者：Zhan-Le Du Hua-Ning Wang 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Solar Activity National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100012 China 

出 版 物：《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 (天文和天体物理学研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2010年第10卷第10期

页      面：950-955页

核心收录：

学科分类：080904[工学-电磁场与微波技术] 0810[工学-信息与通信工程] 07[理学] 0809[工学-电子科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 08[工学] 081105[工学-导航、制导与控制] 070401[理学-天体物理] 081001[工学-通信与信息系统] 081002[工学-信号与信息处理] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 0704[理学-天文学] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.10973020 and 40890161) supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences through grant KJCX2-YWT04 

主　　题：Sun activity -- Sun general -- sunspots 

摘      要：The maximum amplitude （Rm） of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum （Rmin）. So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. We found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.