Risk-based water quality decision-making under small data using Bayesian network

作     者：张庆庆 许月萍 田烨 张徐杰 

作者机构：Institute of Hydrology and Water ResourcesCivil EngineeringZhejiang University 

出 版 物：《Journal of Central South University》 (中南大学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第19卷第11期

页      面：3215-3224页

核心收录：

学科分类：082803[工学-农业生物环境与能源工程] 0806[工学-冶金工程] 08[工学] 0828[工学-农业工程] 0804[工学-仪器科学与技术] 

基　　金：Project(50809058)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 

主　　题：water quality risk pollution reduction decisions Bayesian network conditional linear Gaussian Model small data 

摘      要：A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small ***,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A two-constraint selection procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small *** all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the representatives.Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are *** final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and two-constraint selection procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.