Application of Time-Series Model to Predict Groundwater Dynamic in Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

作     者：LUAN Zhaoqing LIU Guihua YAN Baixing 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of wetland Ecology and Environment Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun 130012 Jilin P.R. China 

出 版 物：《湿地科学》 (Wetland Science)

年 卷 期：2011年第9卷第1期

页      面：47-51页

核心收录：

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 081803[工学-地质工程] 0908[农学-水产] 08[工学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 0901[农学-作物学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：Under the auspices of the Projects of the National Basis Research Program of China (2009CB421103) the Key Direction Program of the Chinese Academy of Science (KZCX2-YW-309-04, KZCX2-YW-Q06-03) National Natural Science Foundation of China(41001050) 

主　　题：groundwater dynamic long-term trend seasonal ARMA exponential model Sanjiang Plain 

摘      要：To study the groundwater dynamic in the typical region of Sanjiang Plain, long-term groundwater level observation data in the Honghe State Farm were collected and analyzed in this paper. The seasonal and long-term groundwater dynamic was explored. From 1996 to 2008, groundwater level kept declining due to intensive exploitation of groundwater resources for rice irrigation. A decline of nearly 5 m was found for almost all the monitoring wells. A time-series method was established to model the groundwater dynamic. Modeled results by time-series model showed that the groundwater level in this region would keep declining according to the current exploitation intensity. A total dropdown of 1.07 m would occur from 2009 to 2012. Time-series model can be used to model and forecast the groundwater dynamic with high accuracy. Measures including control on groundwater exploitation amount and application of water saving irrigation technique should be taken to prevent the continuing declining of groundwater in the Sanjiang Plain.