NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC MODEL RETRIEVAL OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH BASED ON EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION AND GENETIC ALGORITHM

作     者：张韧 洪梅 孙照渤 牛生杰 朱伟军 闵锦忠 万齐林 

作者机构：Institute of MeteorologyPLA University of Science and TechnologyNanjing 211101P. R. China Nanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyKLMENanjing 210044P. R. China Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyCMAGuangzhou 510080P. R. China 

出 版 物：《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 (应用数学和力学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2006年第27卷第12期

页      面：1645-1653页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 070104[理学-应用数学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0701[理学-数学] 

基　　金：Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40375019) the Tropical Marine and Meteorology Science Foundation (No.200609) the Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Foundation (No.KLME0507) 

主　　题：genetic algorithm empirical orthogonal function non-linear model retrieval subtropical high 

摘      要：Aiming at the difficulty of accurately constructing the dynamic model of subtropical high, based on the potential height field time series over 500 hPa layer of T106 numerical forecast products, by using EOF（empirical orthogonal function） temporal-spatial separation technique, the disassembled EOF time coefficients series were regarded as dynamical model variables, and dynamic system retrieval idea as well as genetic algorithm were introduced to make dynamical model parameters optimization search, then, a reasonable non-linear dynamic model of EOF time-coefficients was established. By dynamic model integral and EOF temporal-spatial components assembly, a mid-/long-term forecast of subtropical high was carried out. The experimental results show that the forecast results of dynamic model are superior to that of general numerical model forecast results. A new modeling idea and forecast technique is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high.