Experience of the forecast of water and power resources changes at warming of the 21st century

作     者：Alexander Kislov Eugenie Evstigneev Galina Surkova 

作者机构：Departments of Meteorology & Climatology and Land Hydrology Faculty of Geography Moscow State University 

出 版 物：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 (中国科学（技术科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2009年第52卷第11期

页      面：3224-3233页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

主　　题：climate change natural resources runoff humidity climate models 

摘      要：Global warming causes changes of those natural resources like power resources, water resources, agroclimatic and ecological resources etc. And these changes depend on climate. Dynamics of resources depends both on planned economic activities and on changes of a climate. In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed. Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project) in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling. This project includes the world’s best climate models. Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions (or empirical orthogonal functions) were compared. It was shown that the modelling data were much more reliable over flat territories. In result 11 most successful models were selected. They can be used for the forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario A2 at the 21st century. Estimations of changes of volumes of a river runoff and conditions of humidity of territory have been allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain. Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes.