Numerieal Prediction of Storm Surge in the Qingdao Area Under the Impact of Climate Change

作     者：FENG Jianlong JIANG Wensheng BIAN Changwei 

作者机构：Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology Ocean University of China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Ocean University of China》 (中国海洋大学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第13卷第4期

页      面：539-551页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 

基　　金：supported by the Marine Industry Research Special Funds for Public Welfare Projects (No. 200905013) 

主　　题：storm surge typhoon path climate change Qingdao 

摘      要：A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie(8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie(8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie(8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature(SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future(the end of the 21 st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie(8509) was also estimated in this study.