Joint probability distribution of winds and waves from wave simulation of 20 years (1989-2008) in Bohai Bay

作     者：Xiao-chen YANG Qing-he ZHANG 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety Tianjin University 

出 版 物：《Water Science and Engineering》 (水科学与水工程（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2013年第6卷第3期

页      面：296-307页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grant No. 51021004) the National High Technology Research and DevelopmentProgram of China (863 Program, Grants No. 2012AA112509 and 2012AA051702) 

主　　题：wind speed wave simulation joint probability distribution copula function,conditional probability distribution 

摘      要：The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard （GH） copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer （QSCAT） satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares （OLS） test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.