Risk-opportunity analyses and production peak forecasting on world conventional oil and gas perspectives

作     者：Zhang Jian Sun Zandong Zhang Yiwei Sun Youshun Nail Toksoz Zhang Jian1,2,3,Sun Zandong1,2,Zhang Yiwei1,2,Sun Youshun3 and Nafi Toksoz3 1 Lab for Integration of Geology and Geophysics,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China 2 State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China 3 Earth Resources Laboratory,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,77 Mass. Ave,Cambridge,MA 02139,USA

作者机构：~Lab for Integration of Geology and Geophysics China University of Petroleum Beijing 102249 China State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting China University of Petroleum Beijing 102249 China Earth Resources Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Mass. Ave Cambridge MA 02139 USA 

出 版 物：《Petroleum Science》 (石油科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2010年第7卷第1期

页      面：136-146页

核心收录：

学科分类：0820[工学-石油与天然气工程] 08[工学] 082002[工学-油气田开发工程] 

主　　题：Production reserve risk opportunity forecasting 

摘      要：To investigate the situation of conventional oil and gas, this paper examines the global oil and gas discoveries, proved reserves, production, consumption and price. All the influencing factors can be subjected to risk and opportunity analyses, so in the paper, we build upon a risk-opportunity analysis framework, which is a new train of thought. To forecast the peak time of oil and gas production, we used the methods of multi-Hubbert model forecasting and data forecasting. Our results showed that the world oil production will reach a peak between 2010 and 2015 and the gas production will reach a peak around 2030 Oil peak is coming and gas peak is on the way. The main purpose of forecasting oil and gas production peak is give people enough time for preparing mitigation and adaptation plans. This means taking decisive action well before the problem is obvious.