Unified probabilistic gas and power flow

作     者：Yuan HU Haoran LIAN Zhaohong BIE Baorong ZHOU 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power EquipmentXi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049China Electric Power Research InstituteChina Southern Power GridGuangzhou 510080China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》 (现代电力系统与清洁能源学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2017年第5卷第3期

页      面：400-411页

核心收录：

学科分类：080802[工学-电力系统及其自动化] 0808[工学-电气工程] 08[工学] 081404[工学-供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程] 0814[工学-土木工程] 

基　　金：supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFB0901903) Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51637008) State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment in Xi’an Jiaotong University(No.EIPE14106) 

主　　题：Natural gas and electricity coupled system Uncertainties Multi-slack-bus model Cumulant method Probabilistic power and gas flow Piecewise linearization 

摘      要：The natural gas system and electricity system are coupled tightly by gas turbines in an integrated energy system. The uncertainties of one system will not only threaten its own safe operation but also be likely to have a significant impact on the other. Therefore, it is necessary to study the variation of state variables when random fluctuations emerge in the coupled system. In this paper, a multislack-bus model is proposed to calculate the power and gas flow in the coupled system. A unified probabilistic power and gas flow calculation, in which the cumulant method and Gram–Charlier expansion are applied, is first presented to obtain the distribution of state variables after considering the effects of uncertain factors. When the variation range of random factors is too large, a new method of piecewise linearization is put forward to achieve a better fitting precision of probability distribution. Compared to the Monte Carlo method, the proposed method can reduce computation time greatly while reaching a satisfactory *** validity of the proposed methods is verified in a coupled system that consists of a 15-node natural gas system and the IEEE case24 power system.