China's Industrialization and the Pathway of Industrial CO2 Emissions

作     者：CHEN Zi LIU Changyi QU Shenning 

作者机构：Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration Institute of Industrial EconomicChinese Academy of Social Sciences 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies》 (城市与环境研究(英文))

年 卷 期：2015年第3卷第3期

页      面：24-37页

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 083305[工学-城乡生态环境与基础设施规划] 08[工学] 09[农学] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

基　　金：supported by National Science Fund Youth Project “Study on Dynamic CGE Model and Policy of Upgrading and Transformation of China’s Heavy and Chemical Industries under the Total Quantity Restraint of Energy and Water Resources Consumption” (Approval No. 71203232) 

主　　题：Industrialization CO2 emissions China Kuznets curve prediction 

摘      要：Industrial sector is the largest CO2emission sector in China, thus the peak of China’s total CO2emissions relies heavily on its industrial sector. After rapid industrialization during the last three decades, China now is between the intermediate and the late industrialization stage in *** at the production and emission structures of China’s industries, especially the heavy and chemical industrial sectors which are energy-and emission-intensive industries, we claim that the output of these heavy and chemical industries will peak at around 2020, the industrialization process will complete at around 2025 and after that, China will enter the post-industrialization *** to the CO2emission pathways of developed countries during their industrialization, *** so-called “Carbon Kuznets Curve, and based on the characteristics of China’s industrialization and urbanization process, it is estimated that the CO2emissions from the industrial sector will keep rising over time and reach its peak at around the year 2040 in the business-as-usual scenario; while in the low-carbon scenario, it will peak between 2025 and 2030 and decline after the year 2040.