Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty

作     者：Zeying GUI Chenglong ZHANG Mo LI Ping GUO 

作者机构：Centre for Agricultural Water Research in ChinaChina Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100083China 

出 版 物：《Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering》 (农业科学与工程前沿（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第2卷第3期

页      面：205-215页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41271536 51439006 and 91425302) 

主　　题：water resources system evaluation criterion optimization model risk analysis method uncertainty 

摘      要：The main characteristic of the water resources system(WRS)is its great complexity and uncertainty,which makes it highly desirable to carry out a risk analysis of the *** natural environmental,social economic conditions as well as limitations of human cognitive ability are possible sources of the uncertainties that need to be taken into account in the risk analysis *** this paper the inherent stochastic uncertainty and cognitive subjective uncertainty of the WRS are discussed first,from both objective and subjective *** the quantitative characterization methods of risk analysis are introduced,including three criteria(reliability,resiliency and vulnerability)and five basic optimization models(the expected risk value model,conditional value at risk model,chance-constrained risk model,minimizing probability of risk events model,and the multi-objective optimization model).Finally,this paper focuses on the various methods of risk analysis under uncertainty,which are summarized as random,fuzzy and mixed methods.A more comprehensive risk analysis methodology for the WRS is proposed based on the comparison of the advantages,disadvantages and applicable conditions of these three *** paper provides a decision support of risk analysis for researchers,policy makers and stakeholders of the WRS.