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Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability:a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province,China

作     者:Tian-Mu Chen Shao-Sen Zhang Jun Feng Zhi-Gui Xia Chun-Hai Luo Xu-Can Zeng Xiang-Rui Guo Zu-Rui Lin Hong-Ning Zhou Shui-Sen Zhou 

作者机构:Department of MalariaNational Institute of Parasitic DiseasesChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention207 Rui Jin Er RoadShanghai 200025People’s Republic of China WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases207 Rui Jin Er RoadShanghai 200025People’s Republic of China National Center for International Research on Tropical DiseasesMinistry of Science and Technology207 Rui Jin Er RoadShanghai 200025People’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector BiologyMinistry of Health207 Rui Jin Er RoadShanghai 200025People’s Republic of China Yunnan Institute of Parasitic DiseasesPuerPeople’s Republic of China Yingjiang County Center for Disease Control and PreventionDehongPeople’s Republic of China 

出 版 物:《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》 (贫困所致传染病(英文))

年 卷 期:2018年第7卷第1期

页      面:355-365页

核心收录:

学科分类:0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 

基  金:This work was supported by Scientific Project of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning(No.20164Y0047) 

主  题:Malaria Importation Vulnerability Mobile population Individual-based model 

摘      要:Background:The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China,and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this ***:A community-based,cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September ***-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections,and imported cases were identified in each village(between January 2013 and September 2016).A stochastic simulation model(SSM)was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability,according to the mechanisms of malaria ***:Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages,with a 4-year average of 1 case/year(range:0-5 cases/year).No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from *** median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012(range:0.000-0.033).The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56%(range:28.38-71.95%).Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito *** SSM model fit the investigated data(χ2=0.487,P=0.485).The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011(range:0.0048-0.1585).The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each ***:A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border *** population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.

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