A Novel Methodological Approach to Estimate the Impact of Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters on Country/Region-Level Economic Growth

作     者：Sayanti Mukherjee Makarand Hastak 

作者机构：Lyles School of Civil Engineering Purdue University School of Industrial Engineering Purdue University Division of Construction Engineering and ManagementPurdue University 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 (国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第9卷第1期

页      面：74-85页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 03[法学] 0709[理学-地质学] 030206[法学-国际政治] 08[工学] 0303[法学-社会学] 0832[工学-食品科学与工程（可授工学、农学学位）] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 083002[工学-环境工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 0302[法学-政治学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 020206[经济学-国际贸易学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 020202[经济学-区域经济学] 0705[理学-地理学] 0837[工学-安全科学与工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0704[理学-天文学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

主　　题：Disaster risk reduction Economic growth Growth econometrics Impact of natural hazard-induced disasters Panel data analysis Random parameter modeling 

摘      要：With the increased frequency of extreme weather events and large-scale disasters, extensive societal and economic losses incur every year due to damage of infrastructure and private properties, business disruptions,fatalities, homelessness, and severe health-related issues. In this article, we analyze the economic and disaster data from1970 through 2010 to investigate the impact of disasters on country/region-level economic growth. We leveraged a random parameter modeling approach to develop the growth-econometrics model that identifies risk factors significantly influencing the country/region-level economic growth in the face of natural hazard-induced disasters,while controlling for country/region-and time-specific unobserved heterogeneities. We found that disaster intensity in terms of fatalities and homelessness, and economic characteristics such as openness to trade and a government s consumption share of purchasing power parity(PPP), are the significant risk factors that randomly vary for different countries/regions. Other significant factors found to be significant include population, real gross domestic product(GDP), and investment share of PPP converted GDP per capita. We also found that flood is the most devastating disaster to affect country/region-level economic growth. This growth-econometrics model will help in the policy and decision making of governmentsrelated to the investment needs for pre-and post-disaster risk mitigation and response planning strategies, to better protect nations and minimize disaster-induced economic impacts.