A study on the possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China

作     者：ZHANG Yu WANG Fu-tang (Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) 

出 版 物：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 (地理学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：1999年第9卷第2期

页      面：147-154页

核心收录：

学科分类：09[农学] 0901[农学-作物学] 

主　　题：climate warming impacts rice model GCMs stochastic weather generator 

摘      要：Based on climate change scenarios projected from GCMs (GFDL, UKMO and MPI), this study evaluates possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China using numerical simulation experiments. A stochastic weather generator is used to make the projected climatic change scenarios suitable to the input of crop model, ORYZA1. The results show that the duration of rice growing season will be lengthened by 6-11 days and the accumulated temperature will increase by 200℃.d-330℃.d when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere doubles. The probability of cool injury in reproductive and grain filling period will decrease while that of heat stress will increase. Rice yield will decrease if cultivars and fanning practices are unchanged. If the dates of rice development stages can be maintained unchanged through cultivar adjustment although rice yield in most parts of the areas will decrease, the decrements will be much less than that when cultivars and farming practices are unchanged.