The prospects for China＇＇s food security and imports： Will China starve the world via imports？

作     者：HUANG Ji-kun WEI Wei CUI Qi XIE Wei 

作者机构：China Center for Agricultural Policy School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 P.R. China Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 P.R.China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 P.R.China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 (农业科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2017年第16卷第12期

页      面：2933-2944页

核心收录：

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 0832[工学-食品科学与工程（可授工学、农学学位）] 02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 0905[农学-畜牧学] 0906[农学-兽医学] 0901[农学-作物学] 0703[理学-化学] 0902[农学-园艺学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

基　　金：financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71333013 and 71503243) the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y02015004 and GJHZ1312) the Tsinghua University, China (CIRS2016-03) the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017M610710) 

主　　题：food security food supply import China global 

摘      要：China＇s food supply and demand have significant implications for both China＇s own national food security and that of the world. This study reviews China＇s food security prospects and their implications, focusing on international trade in the coming decade. The results show that China＇s policies for ensuring food security will be enhanced and China will move to sustainable agriculture. Most studies anticipate that China will increase its food and feed imports in the coming decade. China＇s overall food self-sufficiency is likely to fall from 94.5% in 2015 to around 91% by 2025. The greatest increases in imports are likely to be soybean, maize, sugar, and dairy products. However, within the production capacity of the major exporting countries and of many food-importing developing countries, China＇s additional imports of 3 to 5% of its total food consumption in the coming decade are unlikely to threaten global food security. Indeed, the projected imports of feed and several foods could provide opportunities for many exporting countries to expand their production and save global resources.