A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD

作     者：GUO Rong QI Liang-bo GE Qian-qian WENG Yong-yuan 郭蓉;漆梁波;葛倩倩;翁永元

作者机构：Shanghai Central Meteorological ObservatoryShanghai 200030 China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMAShanghai 200030 China Zhejiang University of Finance&EconomicsHangzhou 300016 China Shanghai Meteorological BureauShanghai 200030 China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 (热带气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第24卷第1期

页      面：42-48页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475060 41275067 41405060) 

主　　题：typhoon path real-time correction ensemble forecast track errors 

摘      要：Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.