Simulation of four respiratory viruses and inference of epidemiological parameters

作     者：Julia Reis Jeffrey Shaman 

作者机构：a Biological Systems EngineeringVirginia TechBlacksburgVAUSA Department of Environmental Health SciencesMailman School of Public HealthColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2018年第3卷第1期

页      面：23-34页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：NIGMS NIH HHS [R01 GM100467  U01 GM110748] Funding Source: Medline 

主　　题：respiratory parameters estimates 

摘      要：While influenza has been simulated extensively to better understand its behavior and predict future outbreaks,most other respiratory viruses have seldom been *** this study,we provide an overview of four common respiratory viral infections:respiratory syncytial virus(RSV),respiratory adenovirus,rhinovirus and parainfluenza,present specimen data collected 2004e2014,and simulate outbreaks in 19 overlapping regions in the United *** a compartmental model and data assimilation methods,we infer key epidemiological parameters governing transmission:the basic reproductive number R0 and length of infection *** had been previously simulated,and our mean estimate of D and R0 of 5.2 days and 2.8,respectively,are within published clinical and modeling *** the four virus groupings,mean estimates of R0 range from 2.3 to 3.0,with a lower and upper quartile range of 2.0e2.8 and 2.6e3.2,*** rapid PCR testing becomes more common,estimates of the observed virulence and duration of infection for these viruses could inform decision making by clinicians and officials for managing patient treatment and response.