Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru

作     者：Sly C.WONGCHUIG Carlos R.MELLO Sin C.CHOU 

作者机构：Hydraulics Institute Research Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul Soil and Water Engineering Federal University of Lavras Brazilian Weather Research and Forecast National Spatial Research Institute (INPE) 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mountain Science》 (山地科学学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2018年第15卷第2期

页      面：264-279页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：FAPEMIG (PPM X 45-16) CNPq partially funded by CNPq 308035/2013-5 

主　　题：Precipitation Evaporation PrecipitationConcentration Index (PCI) Modified Fournier Index(MFI) Climate change Tropical Andes 

摘      要：Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） AIB greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 2o-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index （MFI） shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, whieh suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index （PCI） shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.