Complex patterns of precipitation and extreme events during 1951-2011 in Sichuan Basin, Southwestern China

作     者：ZHOU Xiang-yang LEI Wen-juan 

作者机构：Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Public Big Data Guizhou University State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering Sichuan University College of Architecture & Environment Sichuan University 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mountain Science》 (山地科学学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2018年第15卷第2期

页      面：340-356页

核心收录：

学科分类：0709[理学-地质学] 0819[工学-矿业工程] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0303[法学-社会学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0705[理学-地理学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0704[理学-天文学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 0713[理学-生态学] 0834[工学-风景园林学（可授工学、农学学位）] 

基　　金：funded by open funding of Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Public Big Data(Guizhou University, Grant No.2017BDKFJJ021) Special Science and Technology Funding of Guizhou Province Water Resources Department (KT201707) Guizhou Province Science and Technology Joint Founding (LH 7617) China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No.2016M5 92671) 

主　　题：Extreme precipitation events Climatechange Sichuan Basin Trend analysis Probability distribution 

摘      要：Sichuan Basin is located in southwestern China and affected by a complex water vapor （WV） sources. Here, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and extreme events are investigated by six indices of World Meteorology Organization Commission, including annual precipitation total （AP）, maximum daily precipitation （Maxld）, intensity of rainfall over 1 mm/d （IR1）, maximum and mean consecutive dry days （Max CDD, Mean CDD） and coefficient of variance. Based on 24 daily precipitation time series from 1951 to 2o11, Mann-Kendall test is employed to quantify the significant level of these indices, from which the classification of precipitation change and its spatial patterns are obtained. Meanwhile, the probability distributions of these indices are identified by L-moment analysis and the Goodness-of-fit test, and the corresponding values are calculated by theoretical model at different return periods. The results reveal that the western basin displays normal drought： less AP and precipitation intensity while longer drought. The southern basin shows normal increase： larger AP and precipitation intensity but shorter CDD. However, in hilly region of the central basin and the transition zone between basin and mountains, precipitation changes abnormally： increasing both drought （one or both of Mean CDD and MaxCDD） and precipitation intensity （one or both of Maxld and trend of AP is. Probability IR1） no matter what the distribution models also demonstrate the complex patterns： a negative correlation between Maxld and Max CDD in the west （R2≥0.61） while a positive correlation in the east （R2≥0.41） at all return periods. These patterns are induced by the changes in WV sources and the layout of local terrain. The increase of WV in summer and decrease in spring leads to the heavier rainfall and longer drought respectively. The large heat island effect of the basin contributes to a lower temperature in transition zones and more precipitation in the downwind area. These resul