Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities

作     者：Daniel Lane Shima Beigzadeh Richard Moll 

作者机构：C-Change International Community-University Research Alliance (ICURA) Telfer School of Management University of Ottawa 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 (国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2017年第8卷第4期

页      面：374-389页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 083303[工学-住房与社区建设规划] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

基　　金：the community-based University of Ottawa EnRiCH project (http://www.enrichproject.ca/), led by Dr. Tracey O’Sullivan of the Interdisciplinary Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ottawa the ‘‘C-Change’’ International Community-University Research Alliance (ICURA) (http://www.coastalchange.ca) funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) 

主　　题：Canada Charlottetown Climate change adaptation Coastal community resilience Coastal community vulnerability System dynamics model 

摘      要：This research develops and applies a system dynamics(SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities. The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat. The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation *** calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies. The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada. The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown—facing increased frequency of severe storms, storm surges, and sea-level rise—provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal *** research is presented as part of the International Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project ‘‘Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities: Canada and the Caribbean sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Resource Centre.