Remarkable Link between Projected Uncertainties of Arctic Sea-Ice Decline and Winter Eurasian Climate

作     者：Hoffman H.N.CHEUNG Noel KEENLYSIDE Nour-Eddine OMRANI Wen ZHOU 

作者机构：Geophysical InstituteUniversity of BergenBergen 5007Norway Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchUniversity of BergenBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing CenterBergen 5006Norway Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact CentreSchool of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong KongHong KongChina City University of Hong Kong Shenzhen Research InstituteShenzhen 518057China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第35卷第1期

页      面：38-51页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：The work of HC,NK and NO was supported by grants from the European Research Council(ERC)project(Grant No.648982) Nord Forsk under the GREENICE(Grant No.61841) ARCPATH(Grant No.76654)projects the work of WZ was supported by grants from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China(CityU 11335316 and 11305715) benefit from high performance computing grants(NOTUR2,project no.NN 9390K NORSTORE,NS9064K) 

主　　题：Arctic climate Siberian high Icelandic low three-cell meridional circulation 

摘      要：We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter(December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure(SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell,where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North *** the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like ***, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.