Post Millennium Development Goals Prospect on Child Mortality in India: An Analysis Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) Model
Post Millennium Development Goals Prospect on Child Mortality in India: An Analysis Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) Model作者机构：Indian Statistical Institute Kolkata India National Institute of Medical Statistics ICMR Ansari Nagar New Delhi India Indian Council of Medical Research New Delhi India Subharti Medical College Meerut India UNICEF New Delhi India
出 版 物：《Health》 (健康（英文）)
年 卷 期：2016年第8卷第15期
页 面：1845-1872页
学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100202[医学-儿科学] 10[医学]
主 题：Under-Five Mortality Infant Mortality Neonatal Mortality Sustainable Development Goals Post-2015 Development Agenda ARIMA Model Mortality Projection
摘 要：Background & Objectives: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are set up as a part of the Post Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Then it becomes essential to review the achievement of the MDGs in India and lessons learned to incorporate into the SDGs. The present study reviews and predicts different components of under-five mortality rate beyond 2015 to assess the present situation and to determine the future possibilities of achieving the new targets for SDGs in India. Data and Methods: It uses available time series data on different components of U5MR from the India’s Sample Registration System (SRS). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model has been taken as the method of time series analysis to forecast the mortality rates beyond 2015. Results: There is a consistent pattern of faster decline in the under-five mortality compared with the neonatal mortality rate across all major states in India although neonatal mortality contributes largest share in under-five mortality. Again, share of neonatal death among under-five death is increasing steadily over the future projected years. This indicates very slow progress of reduction in neonatal mortality. Stimulating efforts with new intervention programmes will be needed to focus more on lowering neonatal mortality particularly in rural India.
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