Migration for survival under natural disasters:A reluctant and passive choice for agriculturalists in historical China

作     者：PEI Qing 

作者机构：Department of Social Sciencesthe Education University of Hong KongHong KongChina 

出 版 物：《Science China Earth Sciences》 (中国科学（地球科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2017年第60卷第12期

页      面：2089-2096页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 0201[经济学-理论经济学] 020106[经济学-人口、资源与环境经济学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：support from Early Career Scheme funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong(Grant No.28300717) Internal Research Grant(Grant No.RG68/2016-2017) Start-up Research Grant(Grant No.RG1/2016-2017R) Dean’s Research Output Prize(Grant No.04233-SSC ROP-3)from the Education University of Hong Kong and Rachel Carson Fellowship 2017-2018 

主　　题：Natural disasters Agriculturalists'migration Population pressure Empirical analysis Historical China 

摘      要：This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration is a population density-dependent phenomenon. This study has adopted correlation analysis, multivariate linear/Poisson regression analyses, and Granger causality analysis to verify the linkages of natural disaster-migration and population-migration in historical China by collecting updated datasets. This study is the first attempt to reveal that the duration effects of natural disasters on the migration of agriculturalists are short-term and almost instantaneous. Although the agrarian society has a low buffering capacity, the effects of natural disasters within a short-term scale could be relieved to some extent. However, population pressure can push migration on a long-term scale despite its limited forcefulness.