An Empirical Study on China＇s Energy Supply-and-Demand Model Considering Carbon Emission Peak Constraints in 2030

作     者：Jinhang Chen 

作者机构：China Datang Corporation Beijing 100033 China 

出 版 物：《Engineering》 (工程（英文）)

年 卷 期：2017年第3卷第4期

页      面：512-517页

核心收录：

学科分类：0810[工学-信息与通信工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 0808[工学-电气工程] 07[理学] 0817[工学-化学工程与技术] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 0805[工学-材料科学与工程（可授工学、理学学位）] 0703[理学-化学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 

主　　题：Carbon emission Peak Energy supply and demand Model Scenario 

摘      要：China’s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China’s economic development, technological progress, policies, resources, environmental capacity, and other factors. The analysis of the defined scenarios provides the following conclusions: Primary energy and power demand will continue to grow leading up to 2030, and the growth rate of power demand will be much higher than that of primary energy demand. Moreover, low carbonization will be a basic feature of energy supply-and-demand structural changes, and non-fossil energy will replace oil as the second largest energy source. Finally, energy-related carbon emissions could peak in 2025 through the application of more efficient energy consumption patterns and more low-carbon energy supply modes. The push toward decarbonization of the power industry is essential for reducing the peak value of carbon emissions.