Demographic Origins of the Great Recession:Implications for China

作     者：Rafael Gomez Danielle Lamb 

作者机构：Centre for Industrial Relations and Human ResourcesUniversity of Toronto Ted Rogers School of ManagementRyerson University 

出 版 物：《China & World Economy》 (中国与世界经济（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2013年第21卷第2期

页      面：97-118页

核心收录：

学科分类：0303[法学-社会学] 03[法学] 030302[法学-人口学] 

主　　题：age structure demographic dividend economic growth financial crisis recession 

摘      要：The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated economic growth experienced by disparate countries and regions at different points in time. Generally less emphasized are the ramifications of this proeess when it occurs in reverse; that is, when the relative size of the working age population begins to shrink. Related to this is the more subtle effect of changes to the age structure of the overall working age population, which can have compounding or offsetting effects in relation to the demographic dividend noted above. This paper explores how these age-related phenomena were instrumental to both the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008. We explore how the generational eomposition of economic actors and the aging of the baby-boom worker may have played a role in provoking these remarkable recessionary periods. The reversal of the demographic dividend and the aging of the working age population are factors now contributing to the propagation of the global economic downturn, as witnessed in the example of Japan over the past half-century. This paper applies the lessons of the Great Depression, the Great Recession and Japan to offer a forward-looking analysis of the Chinese economy. China is on the precipiee of a significant demographic shift whose implications for economic growth are explored.