Integrated Risk Identification, Analysis, and Assessment:A Dynamic Household Economy Analysis Methodology and Example

作     者：Bob Alexander Linda J.Cox Junko Mochizuki 

作者机构：Rural Livelihood Risk Management ConsultingP.O.Box 1251HonoluluHI 96807USA Department of Natural Resource and Environmental ManagementUniversity of Hawai`i at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 (国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2013年第4卷第2期

页      面：77-88页

核心收录：

学科分类：083002[工学-环境工程] 02[经济学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 0201[经济学-理论经济学] 020105[经济学-世界经济] 08[工学] 

主　　题：integrate disaster interested 

摘      要：Many methodologies identify, analyze, and assess static risks to quantify potential disaster losses based on past and current events. Static methodologies will not, however, capture how climate change and adaptation are rapidly affecting the natural and social systems in many areas. Local and global changes such as those associated with development investments, livelihood pressures, political stability, and demographic trends are also affecting many areas, especially in emerging economies. Risk identification, analysis, and assessment methodologies must integrate all changes dynamically so that risk reduction and development decisions can be based on future needs. After a theoretical explanation of how to integrate dynamic changes, a static Household Economy Analysis(HEA) completed for a rapidly changing area of East Timor was altered using current trends to make the analysis more dynamic. Some inherent difficulties exist with a more dynamic approach and recommendations for overcoming them are presented. Research, government, and nongovernment personnel interested in integrated approaches to risk reduction and development decision-making in areas subject to rapid change will find the study useful.