Biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation for probabilistic safety assessment

作     者：Xiao-Lei Pan Jia-Qun Wang Run Yuan Fang Wang Han-Qing Lin Li-Qin Hu Jin Wang 

作者机构：University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230027 China Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology Chinese Academic of Sciences Hefei 230031 China 

出 版 物：《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 (核技术（英文）)

年 卷 期：2017年第28卷第7期

页      面：91-96页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 0827[工学-核科学与技术] 082701[工学-核能科学与工程] 0703[理学-化学] 0702[理学-物理学] 0801[工学-力学（可授工学、理学学位）] 

基　　金：supported by the Special Projects of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor(2015GB116000) the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA03040000) the Informatizational Special Projects of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XXH12504-1-09) the Major/Innovative Program of Development Foundation of Hefei Center for Physical Science and Technology(No.2014FXCX004) 

主　　题：MC模拟 发生概率 安全评估 偏置 仿真 跃迁 安全评价方法 稀有事件 

摘      要：Direct Monte Carlo(MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the *** it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation is proposed to solve the problem in this *** method biases transition rates of the components by adding virtual components to them in series to increase the occurrence probability of the rare event,hence the decrease in the variance of MC *** cases are used to benchmark this *** results show that the method is effective at modeling system failure and is more efficient at collecting evidence of rare events than the direct MC *** performance is greatly improved by the biasing transition rate method.