Climate Change Impacts on Environmental Hazards on the Great Hungarian Plain, Carpathian Basin

作     者：Gábor Mezosi Teodóra Bata Burghard C.Meyer Viktória Blanka Zsuzsanna Ladányi 

作者机构：Department of Physical Geography and GeoinformaticsUniversity of SzegedEgyetem u.2-6Szeged 6722Hungary 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 (国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第5卷第2期

页      面：136-146页

核心收录：

学科分类：083002[工学-环境工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

主　　题：Great inland drought 

摘      要：The potential impacts of climate change on the Great Hungarian Plain based on two regional climate models,REMO and ALADIN,were analyzed using indicators for environmental *** the climate parameters(temperature,precipitation,and wind)will change in the two investigated periods(2021–2050 and 2071–2100),their influences on drought,wind erosion,and inland excess water hazards are modeled by simple predictive *** hazards on arable lands will increasingly affect the productivity of agriculture compared to the reference period(1961–1990).The models predict an increase between 12.3%(REMO)and 20%(ALADIN)in the first period,and between 35.6%(REMO)and 45.2%(ALADIN)in the second *** increase of wind erosion hazards is not as obvious(+15%for the first period in the REMO model).Inland excess water hazards are expected to be slightly reduced(-4 to 0%)by both model predictions in the two periods without showing a clear tendency on *** three indicators together give a first regional picture of potential hazards of climate *** predictive model and data combinations of the regional climate change models and the hazard assessment models provide insights into regional and subregional impacts of climate change and will be useful in planning and land management activities.