ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION AND RESEARCH ON FORECAST OF LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

作     者：杜惠良 钮学新 殷坤龙 谢剑明 刘礼领 

作者机构：Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310021 China Zhejiang Research Institute ofMeteorological Science Hangzhou 310021 China China University of Geosciences Wuhan 430074China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 (热带气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2006年第12卷第1期

页      面：101-102页

学科分类：08[工学] 0837[工学-安全科学与工程] 

基　　金："The pre-warning and prediction system for unexpected geological calamities in Zhejiangprovince and demonstration of its application - A "provincial key project from the science and technologybureau of Zhejiang a key project "the study on forecasting system for heavy rains in Zhejiang province" 

主　　题：landslides debris flows meteorological condition analysis and forecasts 

摘      要：1 INTRODUCTION Meteorological factors, especially precipitation, have close links with geological calamities. According to the statistics, more than 70% of the geological calamities in China occur in rainy seasons. Many researchers are thus motivated to study extensively to determine their relationship in the prediction of geological calamltles . They either rely on single measurements of rainfall to seek basis for widespread occurrence of geological calamities or treat antecedent diurnal rainfall with equal importance, though with account of the accumulated effect of preceding rainfall. Furthermore, it is common for quite a number of models to use the rainfall recorded at hydrological or meteorological rain gauges as the one for the interested day, reducing the time validity of the prediction. In our analysis, it is found that the landslides and debris flows in Zhejiang province are related with the antecedent precipitation （but not by a simple accumulation）. Critical amounts of accumulated and effective rainfall are used in this work to tell whether there will be geological calamities. Moreover, MM5 is used to forecast rainfall, taking account in equations of the predictand for landslides and debris flows, in attempts to predict the appearance of meteorological condition for geological calamities and improve the rationality of forecasting procedures and time validity of forecasts.