中国转轨时期经济增长周期的基本特征及其解释模型

作     者：陈磊 

作者机构：东北财经大学博士后流动站 

出 版 物：《管理世界》 (Journal of Management World)

年 卷 期：2002年第18卷第12期

页      面：6-14页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 0201[经济学-理论经济学] 020105[经济学-世界经济] 

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金 国家自然科学基金 (70171019) 教育部社科基金资助 

主　　题：中国 转轨时期 经济增长周期 基本特征 投资周期 形成机制 

摘      要：In this article I will, with the help of modern econometric techniques and case studies, examine the nature of growth trend demonstrated since China adopted the policy of reform and opening to the outside world, of the principal aggregate indicators of GDP, investment and consumption, and on this basis, draw a proper distinction between trends of those aggregate indicators. And on this ground this paper will chiefly inquire into and analyze the basic characteristics of the cyclic fluctuation of economic growth in China’s economic transition, fixing in rough the average length of China’s economic growth as something like 9 years in terms of Clement Juglar’s cyclic fluctuation theory. Considering this typical fact and using for reference the related theory of dynamic non-equilibrium economics, in this article I will try, by the construction of the pattern of investment cycle of fixed assets, to explain the main mechanisms form this economic cycle.