Terrestrial ground temperature variations in relation to solar magnetic variability,including the present Schwabe cycle

作     者：C.de Jager H.Nieuwenhuijzen 

作者机构：Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchFormerly Astronomical Institute and SRON Laboratory for Space ResearchSorbon-nelaan 2UtrechtThe Netherlands SRON Laboratory for Space ResearchSorbonnelaan 2UtrechtThe Netherlands 

出 版 物：《Natural Science》 (自然科学期刊（英文）)

年 卷 期：2013年第5卷第10期

页      面：1112-1120页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Solar Activity Climate Dynamo Toroidal Field Poloidal Field 

摘      要：We study the influence of solar activity on climate by investigating the relation between the long-term components of the total magnetic fluxes of both the equatorial and polar fields of the sun and the average terrestrial ground temperature. This is done for the period 1610 (beginning of systematic sunspot observations) till present with an extrapolation to 2015. It is found that from 1610 till about the first half of the 20th century the variation of the long-term average terrestrial ground temperatures is chiefly due to the variation of solar activity, with seemingly random, non-solar residuals. Around 2007, after the Grand Maximum of the 20th century, solar activity, after having gone through a remarkable transition period (~2005 to ~2010), entered into another Grand Episode. That Episode started with the present solar cycle, in shape comparable to the equally weak Schwabe cycle #14. The transition period, in combination with the present low Schwabe cycle causes that the solar contribution to the total terrestrial temperature variation is small during the on-going decade. It results in a slowing down of the rise of temperature after ~2005.