Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma after curative treatment

作     者：Wenhua Liang Guanzhu Shen Yaxiong Zhang Gang Chen Xuan Wu Yang Li Anchuan Li Shiyang Kang Xi Yuan Xue Hou Peiyu Huang Yan Huang Hongyun Zhao Ying Tian Chong Zhao Li Zhang 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center for Cancer MedicineSun Yat-sen University Cancer Center Department of Medical OncologySun Yat-sen University Cancer Center Department of Thoracic Surgery/OncologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University Department of Radiation OncologySun Yat-sen University Cancer Center Department of RadiotherapyCancer Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University Department of RadiotherapySun Yat-sen University Cancer Center 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Cancer》 (Chin J Cancer)

年 卷 期：2016年第35卷第12期

页      面：658-665页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2012AA02A501 and 2012AA02A502) Sun Yat-sen University Clinical Medical Research Project 5010 (Grant No.20130008) 

主　　题：Nasopharyngeal carcinoma Nomogram Prognosis 

摘      要：Background: The TNM staging system is far from perfect in predicting the survival of individual cancer patients because only the gross anatomy is considered. The survival rates of the patients who have the same TNM stage disease vary across a wide spectrum. This study aimed to develop a nomogram that incorporates other clinicopathologic factors for predicting the overall survival(OS) of non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC) patients after curative ***: We retrospectively collected the clinical data of 1520 NPC patients who were diagnosed histologically between November 2000 and September 2003. The clinical data of a separate cohort of 464 patients who received intensity-modulated radiation therapy(IMRT) between 2001 and 2010 were also retrieved to examine the extensibility of the model. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the prognostic factors for building the nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were measured using the concordance index(c-index).Results: We identiied and incorporated 12 independent clinical factors into the nomogram. The calibration curves showed that the prediction of OS was in good agreement with the actual observation in the internal validation set and IMRT cohort. The c-index of the nomogram was statistically higher than that of the 7th edition TNM staging system for predicting the survival in both the primary cohort(0.69 vs. 0.62) and the IMRT cohort(0.67 vs. 0.63).Conclusion: We developed and validated a novel nomogram that outperformed the TNM staging system in predicting the OS of non-metastatic NPC patients who underwent curative therapy.