Interaction Among Construction Investment,Other Investment and GDP in China

作     者：郑思齐 刘洪玉 

作者机构：Institute of Real Estate Studies Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China 

出 版 物：《Tsinghua Science and Technology》 (清华大学学报（自然科学版（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2004年第9卷第2期

页      面：160-167页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 120204[管理学-技术经济及管理] 1202[管理学-工商管理] 

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 79930500) 

主　　题：interactive effect gross domestic product (GDP) construction investment cointegration Granger causality error correction model 

摘      要：With Granger causality method, this paper examines the causal dynamics among three economic fundamentals: construction investment, other investment and the gross domestic product (GDP). Short-run and long-run interactive effects among these three time series are analyzed from 1981 to 2001. The empirical results show that construction investment has a stronger short-run effect on economic growth than other investment, and economic growth has a long-term effect on both construction and other investments. These findings indicate that construction investment is an important factor influencing short-term economic growth fluctuations, with its growth stimulating economic growth and its slumps leading to downside fluctuations. At the same time, invest-ment growth cannot be sustained without the support of the national economy. These empirical results have im-portant implications for economic policy makers in China.