Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Evaluations Using an Alternative Verification Technique

作     者：CHEN Cai-Zhu YU Jin-Hua LI Qing-Qing 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique/China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030 China 

出 版 物：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 (大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2011年第4卷第3期

页      面：151-156页

学科分类：080503[工学-材料加工工程] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0805[工学-材料科学与工程（可授工学、理学学位）] 0802[工学-机械工程] 080201[工学-机械制造及其自动化] 

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421505) the Shanghai Typhoon Foundation (2009ST09) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775060) the Program of China Mete-orological Administration (GYHY201006008 and GYHY200906002) 

主　　题：typhoon intensity forecast verification skillscores error probabilities 

摘      要：In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification *** technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon *** a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are *** is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h *** both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease *** of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors 15 m s-1 were not the highest.