Will China be Able to Avoid the Japan Syndrome？

作     者：Fang Yao 

作者机构：National School of Development and China Center for Economic Research PekingUniversity China 

出 版 物：《China & World Economy》 (中国与世界经济（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2016年第24卷第5期

页      面：98-121页

核心收录：

学科分类：11[军事学] 07[理学] 0712[理学-科学技术史(分学科，可授理学、工学、农学、医学学位)] 

主　　题：China convergence Japan Syndrome trend growth rate 

摘      要：Following the 1973 oil crisis, Japan ＇s economic growth slowed down substantially and its asset prices overshot their long-term trend. The economic performance of this episode of the Japanese history has been dubbed the ＂Japan syndrome.＂ China has followed Japan＇s export-led growth model and the the world economy following the oil crisis current worm economy very much resembles It is then a legitimate question to ask whether China is likely to follow in Japan＇s steps and experience a major slowdown in its growth. The present paper shows that China can do a better job than Japan primarily because its large size allows the country to benefit from internal convergence. Based on the estimation of a growth equation using cross-country panel data, the paper forecasts that under reasonable assumptions about the growth rate of the worm economy and China ＇s investment rate, China could maintain reasonably high growth rates in the next 10 years.