Climate Change Risk Research: A Case Study on Flood Disaster Risk in China

作     者：WU Shao-Hong PAN Tao HE Shan-Feng 

作者机构：Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Henan Polytechnic University Jiaozuo 454000 China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第3卷第2期

页      面：92-98页

学科分类：083002[工学-环境工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2012BAC19B10) Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCXZ-YW-QO3-01) 

主　　题：climate change risk assessment risk management uncertainty 

摘      要：This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China s floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.