Stochastic SIS metapopulation models for the spread of disease among species in a fragmented landscape

作     者：Amy J. Ekanayake 

作者机构：Department of Mathematics Western Illinois University 1 University Circle Maeomb Illinois 61455 USA 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Biomathematics》 (生物数学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2016年第9卷第4期

页      面：97-119页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 020208[经济学-统计学] 07[理学] 070104[理学-应用数学] 0714[理学-统计学（可授理学、经济学学位）] 070103[理学-概率论与数理统计] 0701[理学-数学] 

主　　题：Epidemic metapopulation Ito stochastic differential equation Markov chain moment closure. 

摘      要：Two stochastic models are derived for a susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemic spreading through a metapopulation： a continuous time Markov chain （CTMC） model and an It6 stochastic differential equation （SDE） model. The stochastic models are numerically compared. Close agreement suggests that computationally intense CTMC simulations can be approximated by simpler SDE simulations. Differential equations for the moments of the SDE probability distribution are also derived, the steady states are solved numerically using a moment closure technique, and these results are compared to simulations. The moment closure technique only coarsely approximates simulation results. The effect of model parameters on stability of the disease-free equilibrium is also numerically investigated.